By: Michael Stevens
Updated 3:00PM Oct. 11th
Hello Winter, Oh I Am Sorry, I Mean Fall!
We are nearly half way through October already and wouldn`t you believe it, we are 10 degrees below average. October came in much colder than I had anticipated but is still holding pretty true to what I wrote about below. Temperatures will start to rise this upcoming weekend and finally get us back to normal or close to. I still think an above average winter is still in the works.
What happened with this burst of cold fall air is a direct result of multiple systems moving through and leaving behind cold Arctic air. Good news is that this cold air will move on in about a week or so and in return warm air will gradually filter in from the South and West. What I mean by warm is simply average for this time of year which is high 50s. Don`t be shocked if a 60 makes it in there as well.
The Arctic air mass is still developing nicely as it is getting colder to our north. The coldest lobe of air is still centered over Northern Siberia which is good. Usually when Northern Siberia gets this cold air first we can look forward to a mild or warmer winter but the keyword is USUALLY. As long as we don`t get strong low pressure systems over and over again, that lobe of cold air will build and stay put in Northern Siberia. That`s where the usually comes into play. Last year, if you recall, we had at least one storm a week starting in early November that continued to pull the cold air directly to us and that lasted all winter.
For the next few days we will get a few shots of light snow and temperatures will stay in the 30s. By Friday I see us getting warmer and the snow, if it hasn`t already, melting away. By next Monday into Halloween temperatures will hover around the 50 mark and occasionally be in the upper 50s, which I must say is a ton better than 20s!
Overall my fall is still on track and winter still seems to be forming to my likes. A mild winter just means above average temperatures and not a lot of snow. Last year we got 80 inches or so of snow and I don`t see that happening this year. We will of course get our good storms but nothing like last winter where we could count on at least 1 every week.
Meteorologist Michael Stevens
First Warn Forecast Center
Updated 3:00PM Sept. 22nd
The Return of Summer Comes in autumn
Today is the first day of autumn, and it looks like the first week of this fall season will be a very nice one. A few things you can thank for this warm early autumn are conditions that we didn’t see until late summer. First, the jet stream is running north of the Canadian Border. Second, the Aleutian Islands in Alaska are big contributors to the formation of our cold weather. With the jet stream running higher than normal, these Aleutian Lows are stuck or running farther to the north so we are not impacted, so far that is. Finally, the Northern Hemisphere, especially the North Pole, isn’t cooling as fast as it did one year ago to this day.
Simply put the jet stream is a current of fast moving air aloft in the atmosphere. This stream of air is a kind of boundary layer. If you are south of the jet then you are more likely to see warmer air for that given season. Right now we are seeing the jet stream north of the Canadian Border putting us south of the stream of air and allowing warm air to filter in from the southwest. This warm air is making its way off the Pacific and pushing east and will be here for the rest of the first week of fall. Will the jet stream continue to push north for the rest of fall? Well as I have said all summer, expect a late summer. That doesn’t mean it will be an amazingly hot fall it just means that we will see those days that are 5 to 10 or maybe even 15 degrees above average at times. We will still see a heavy frost here in next few weeks but I strongly believe we have a few more 80s in our system for October thanks to the jet stream acting the way it is.
The Aleutian Islands in Alaska are famous for crab fishing. If you are a Discovery Channel fanatic like myself, then you know the show “Deadliest Catch” and the dangers of the Aleutian area. Most years the Aleutian Bay gets huge lows that sit on top of it during the winter. I call these the “Aleutian Hurricanes”. They sit there and spin out systems that eventually wind up here in North Dakota. In the winter these systems are usually referred to as Alberta Clippers or Sasky Screamers or Manitoba Maulers but either way we all know clippers can make winter weather downright miserable. Right now, these “Hurricanes” cannot pound out systems to impact us thanks to the jet stream. It won’t stay like this forever though. In a week or so the jet stream will fall, the Aleutians will create systems and we will have some cold nights with frost and, heaven forbid snow. I don’t foresee the dreaded “S-Word” anytime soon however, it is possible for a 49 degree high during the day as we enter October.
The North Pole isn’t cold all the time. As a kid you picture Santa and the Elves up there year round with nothing but snow. It isn’t always severely cold up there but this is the time of year that things start to transition from cold to extremely cold. Right now the South Pole is trying to wake from her always harsh winters and when that happens it means we are getting ready for winter up here. Right now the heaviest of the cold weather is in northern Greenland. Which is ok, actually it is great. This time last year, things were much cooler up north. We were actually warm here in North Dakota this time last year but there were multiple pools of extremely cold air in the Northern Hemisphere. One spot being the Aleutians! As the jet stream broke down, cool air spilled into the northern plains and stayed there ultimately until June this year. I don’t see that happening this year. Not as cold to our north right now and no extremely cold air to spill over right now. It is still pretty warm to the north, compared to last year they are sunbathing right now.
Overall, expect warm air for the start of autumn with a few cold nights and days thrown in there but an above average fall. No snow in my October outlook so far, but as we near November that may change. I really expect a mild fall and winter as well. We will, of course, get snow but not nearly as much as last year. Temperatures should be above average for winter too. Enjoy autumn and, hopefully, it goes out the way it came in, warm.
Meteorologist Michael Stevens
First Warn Forecast Center
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